As Ceasefire Eludes Gaza, What Lies Ahead for Israelis and Palestinians? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 胡暄 罗子琳
By Caixin Weekly's Hu Xuan and Luo Zilin
自2023年10月下旬，在遭受哈马斯大规模突袭之后，以色列军队大举攻入巴勒斯坦激进派武装组织哈马斯控制的加沙地带，巴以之间近年来规模最大和烈度最高的武装冲突随即展开。这场从地中海东岸的加沙飞地日益向中东多条战线蔓延、酿成重大人道主义危机的战争，在延宕近一年后，仍看不到明确的停火迹象。
Since late October 2023, following a large-scale assault by Hamas, Israeli forces launched a significant incursion into the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. This marked the beginning of the largest and most intense armed conflict between Israel and Palestine in recent years. The war, which started from the Gaza enclave on the eastern Mediterranean coast and has since spread to multiple fronts in the Middle East, has resulted in a major humanitarian crisis. Nearly a year into the conflict, there are still no clear signs of a cease-fire.
尽管持续至今的战火已在加沙地带造成至少4万人丧生、9万余人受伤，当地的大部分哈马斯军事设施和有生力量也基本遭到以军的摧毁和剿灭，但对誓言夷平哈马斯武装分子的藏匿之所、尚未完成解救全部人质目标的以色列政府来说，不仅在加沙的战斗远未结束；在以色列北部与黎巴嫩接壤的边境地区，以军与受到伊朗支持的黎巴嫩真主党武装，也愈发频繁地陷入激烈交火。
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip resulting in at least 40,000 deaths and over 90,000 injuries, with most of Hamas's military facilities and forces largely destroyed by the Israeli military, the fight is far from over for the Israeli government. Committed to eliminating Hamas militants and yet to complete the mission of rescuing all hostages, Israel continues its operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, in the northern regions bordering Lebanon, the Israeli army is increasingly engaged in fierce clashes with the Iran-backed Hezbollah forces.
近来，以色列正将军事行动的重心向北转移，对边界另一侧的黎巴嫩真主党发动更加猛烈的攻击。精通情报战的以色列还制造大规模爆炸袭击，严重破坏了真主党的通信系统，并通过“定点清除”击毙了不少真主党高级指挥官。
Recently, Israel has shifted the focus of its military operations northward, launching more intensive attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon across the border. Mastering the art of intelligence warfare, Israel has orchestrated large-scale explosions, severely disrupting Hezbollah's communication systems, and has conducted "targeted eliminations," resulting in the deaths of numerous high-ranking Hezbollah commanders.
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- The Israeli-Hamas conflict, starting October 2023, has escalated, with both sides suffering significant casualties and no clear signs of a ceasefire.
- The war has caused a major humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with over 41,000 Palestinian and 1,200 Israeli deaths and extensive displacement and infrastructure destruction.
- Israel has targeted Hamas in Gaza while also clashing with Hezbollah in northern Israel; peace talks mediated by the US and other countries have stalled over key issues.
### Summary of Content:
**Conflict Outbreak and Initial Impact:**
In late October 2023, an extensive attack by Hamas led to a significant Israeli incursion into the Gaza Strip, resulting in the most intense Israeli-Palestinian conflict in recent years. The clashes have created a major humanitarian crisis, and nearly a year into the conflict, there is still no sign of a cease-fire [para. 1].
**Deaths and Ongoing Operations:**
The conflict has resulted in at least 40,000 deaths and over 90,000 injuries. Despite substantial losses on the Hamas side, Israel continues its operations in Gaza and has shifted its military focus northward, towards Hezbollah in Lebanon [para. 2][para. 3].
**Shift in Global Opinion:**
The initial global support for Israel, following Hamas's surprise attack that killed over 1,200 Israelis, has waned as images of the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza have spread. Large-scale pro-Palestinian demonstrations have occurred in several Western cities [para. 4][para. 5].
**Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza:**
According to Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry and the UN, about 41,000 Palestinians have died, and over 90% of the Gaza Strip’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced. Lancet reports suggest the death toll might exceed 186,000. Humanitarian conditions are dire with a shortage of basic needs causing indirect deaths that could exceed direct casualties [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7].
**Neglected Humanitarian Efforts and Ceasefire Attempts:**
Despite international mediation efforts by entities like the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, a substantial ceasefire agreement remains elusive. Core disagreements over Gaza's governance continue to derail these talks [para. 7][para. 6].
**Protracted Conflict and Strategic Military Moves:**
The Israeli ground offensive started after an intensive bombing campaign, eventually dividing Gaza into northern and southern sections. Israel has shifted focus to targeted operations and areas rich in underground tunnels and densely populated civilian structures, employing special forces to engage remaining militants [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10].
**Displacement and Casualties:**
Israel's operations have displaced millions in Gaza. Heballah’s support for Hamas and its attacks from neighboring Lebanon exacerbated the situation, leading to numerous casualties and widespread civilian evacuations in both Lebanon and Israel [para. 18][para. 19][para. 22].
**Domestic and International Reactions:**
Within Israel, the conflict has severely impacted daily life and the economy. Public opinion is divided, with a significant portion advocating for peace and negotiations while hardline factions push for continued military action. Protests calling for an end to the war and the rescue of hostages from Gaza have been frequent [para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 40].
**Political Dynamics in Israel:**
Israel's emergency government has seen significant rifts, and PM Netanyahu’s coalition relies heavily on far-right parties. This political dynamic shapes Israel’s stringent stance against Hamas and influences ceasefire negotiations [para. 59][para. 60][para. 61].
**Challenges to Ceasefire Negotiations:**
Ceasefire talks mediated by international actors have not succeeded due to Israel’s additional conditions on military presence in Gaza and other strategic requirements, along with periodic violent escalations disrupting negotiations. The possibility of a diplomatic resolution remains uncertain [para. 66][para. 67][para. 68][para. 69].
### Key Source Paragraphs:
- **Conflict Outbreak:** [para. 1]
- **Deaths and Operations:** [para. 2][para. 3]
- **Shift in Global Opinion:** [para. 4][para. 5]
- **Humanitarian Crisis:** [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7]
- **Humanitarian and Ceasefire Efforts:** [para. 7][para. 6]
- **Protracted War:** [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10]
- **Casualties and Displacement:** [para. 18][para. 19][para. 22]
- **Domestic and International Reactions:** [para. 36][para. 37][para. 38][para. 40]
- **Political Dynamics in Israel:** [para. 59][para. 60][para. 61]
- **Ceasefire Negotiation Challenges:** [para. 66][para. 67][para. 68][para. 69]
- Before October 7, 2023：
- Gaza Strip was under prolonged blockade by Israel, with severe restrictions on movement of goods and people.
- October 7, 2023：
- Hamas militants launched an assault on Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow to reduce Gaza to rubble.
- October 8, 2023：
- Lebanon's Hezbollah began frequently launching attacks on northern Israel.
- Late October 2023：
- Israel launched a significant ground offensive into the Gaza Strip.
- October 27, 2023：
- Israeli infantry units and tank formations crossed the border, advancing into the northern Gaza Strip.
- Early November 2023：
- Israeli forces had effectively divided Gaza into northern and southern sections.
- End of November 2023：
- A temporary ceasefire was achieved where Hamas released over 100 hostages and Israel released approximately 240 Palestinian prisoners.
- Beginning of 2024：
- Israel announced the conclusion of its military operations in northern Gaza.
- February 2024：
- Israeli forces captured the strategic town of Khan Younis in southern Gaza.
- End of May 2024：
- Israel Defense Forces (IDF) largely captured central Rafah and took control of the 'Philadelphi Corridor'.
- July 2024：
- The Lancet reported severe shortages in Gaza due to destruction of infrastructure.
- September 17 and 18, 2024：
- Explosions of communication devices held by Hezbollah members caused significant casualties.
- September 18, 2024：
- Israeli Defense Minister Gallant announced that the war had entered a 'new phase'.
- September 23, 2024：
- Israeli military launched a large-scale airstrike on southern and eastern Lebanon as well as Beirut.
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